When we look for solutions to disputes within companies, we tend to work on the basis that the parties have the same goal – the well-being of the company. But this is not necessarily always the case. The company is certainly one system, but within it there are a number of sub-systems with their own […]
THE LOGIC OF RISK
According to a new Thai study, 2.33% of adolescents vaccinated with mRNA vaccines against Covid-19 were diagnosed with damage to the heart muscle. 0.3% were diagnosed with myocarditis. This is about twice the rate found among hospitalized Covid-19 patients according to a 2021 study I picked at random, and about 33 times the rate for patients not diagnosed […]
NECESSITY AND SUFFICIENCY – A FEW POINTS
We use cause-effect logic all the time. But we usually get it wrong. We are quick to find a cause for events, but whether that cause is real or even sufficient is another matter. Similarly, we often predict the consequences of an event, even if the consequence is not a necessary result of the event. […]
The Ukraine War Exposes the Failures of ‘Ethical’ Business, Says Professor of Finance
Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University, is well known to many of those who have worked in finance. His valuation datasets are widely used by bankers and consultants. But Damodaran does not just collect and publish useful data. In a recent article he asks important questions about the usefulness of […]
How a Sound Investment Decision Might Ruin Life on Earth
We worry increasingly about our environment and what the future holds for our children. We worry about pollution, about the extinction of species and about global warming. Many scientists predict devastation in the short to medium term and increasingly politicians seem to agree with them. However, despite all the talk, very little is being done. […]
When we fail to think in systems …
We are now seeing, right in front of us the consequences of the panic that struck the world a year and a half ago. 20% increase in global hunger, double-digit price increases, disruption of global supply chains, 75% increase in psychosis etc etc …The failure to think systematically is really the root cause behind all […]
Diagrams from my book “From Symptoms to Causes – Applying the Logical Thinking Process to an Everyday Problem”
I have published the following diagrams here since a new policy by Amazon does not allow diagrams in landscape mode, which makes them pretty much unreadable in the Kindle edition. Diagram 6: The Full Current Reality Tree Diagram 14: Overview of a Business Problem Solution Appendix A: Diagram 4: „We define ourselves as a distributor“. […]
IN TIMES OF CRISIS IT IS EASY TO MAKE WRONG DECISIONS
This is why a rigorous logical approach is more important than ever The fourth step in the Logical Thinking Process is called Future Reality Tree (FRT). The FRT is a sufficiency analysis tool where you start out with an action or an event and use sufficiency logic to map out the effects. The Future Reality […]
What is the Logical Thinking Process?
Every human organization is a system. And as systems grow, they become more complicated. What characterizes such a system is that an event that takes place in one area affects other areas of the system, and the way this happens is very often not evident. In other words, there is always a chain of causality, […]
Er einhver tilgangur með endurskoðun áætlana núna?
Við erum að upplifa fordæmalausar aðstæður, sem einkennast kannski fyrst og fremst af gríðarlegri óvissu. Óvissa um útbreiðslu faraldursins, um áhrif á heilbrigðiskerfið, um áhrif á neyslu, fjárfestingar, aðfangakeðjuna, hlutabréfaverð, ríkisfjármál, fjármögnun fyrirtækja … Fréttirnar í dag gefa okkur vísbendingar. En hverjar verða þær á morgun? Það er auðvitað nokkuð ljóst að rekstraráætlanir fyrirtækja sem […]
Systems Thinking and Sound Decisions 